📈 Nasdaq Outlook: A Critical Week Ahead — What ITU Traders Must Know

independenttrading8
Nov 17
3 min read

This week is a big deal for the markets, especially the Nasdaq. A lot of important information is finally being released after weeks of delays from the government shutdown. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is preparing to release the minutes from their last meeting — and those minutes could shift the entire market.

If you’re trading this week, understand this: The market could move fast, and it’ll move based on information — not emotion.

1. The Fed Is in the Spotlight

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes come out mid-week. These minutes tell traders what the Fed is thinking about:

Cutting interest rates
Inflation
The overall economy

Because economic data has been delayed, the Fed has been making decisions without the full picture. That means the market is unsure about whether the Fed will cut rates again in December.

Here’s how the market might react:

If the minutes sound soft or “dovish”:

Yields go down
Tech stocks get support
Nasdaq can bounce higher

If the minutes sound worried or “hawkish”:

Yields rise
Tech stocks get hit
Nasdaq can sell off

Right now, traders are already nervous, so what the Fed says really matters.

2. The Data Backlog Is Finally Clearing

Because of the government shutdown, important reports like jobs and inflation were delayed. This week we finally get:

September Non-Farm Payrolls
Unemployment numbers
ADP private-sector jobs
CPI, PCE, PPI
Retail sales for September & October

This is a LOT of data hitting at once.

If jobs and inflation show strength:

The Fed may hesitate to cut rates → tech struggles.

If the numbers show weakness:

The market prices in more cuts → tech gains, but recession fears may appear.

3. Big Earnings Week — Especially for AI

This week includes major earnings that directly impact the Nasdaq:

Nvidia (NVDA) — Wednesday After Hours

Nvidia is basically the heartbeat of the AI sector. Investors expect huge growth again:

~50%+ revenue growth
Strong AI server orders
Big data-center spending

A strong report = Nasdaq boost A weak or cautious report = heavy pressure

Retail Giants (Tue–Thu)

Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, TJX→ These tell us if the consumer is still spending or starting to slow down.

Software & Cybersecurity

Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, Elastic, Veeva→ These show whether companies are cutting back on tech budgets.

If retail and software both guide lower this week, the Nasdaq could turn defensive fast.

4. Global Stories Matter Too

A few global issues are creating extra pressure:

Japan

Expected to show its first economic contraction in six quarters.

China

Tech companies like Xiaomi, PDD, and Baidu report this week, affecting global AI sentiment.

Crypto

Crypto recently dropped ~25%.When crypto sells off, traders pull back from high-risk tech stocks too.

The Dollar & Yields

The simplest rule:

Strong dollar + rising yields = bad for tech
Weak dollar + stable yields = good for tech

5. What ITU Traders Should Focus On

The Nasdaq this week will move based on three main forces:

1. Fed tone

Dovish → relief rally Hawkish → sell-off

2. Data releases

Finally getting jobs + inflation prints after the shutdown.

3. Earnings (especially Nvidia)

These determine whether valuations make sense or need to come down.

ITU’s Simple Playbook

Certain companies carry more weight than others:

Tier 1 (move the whole index)

Nvidia (NVDA)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Intuit (INTU)

Tier 2 (impact sentiment)

PDD
Ross Stores (ROST)
Copart (CPRT)

If big names report strong results + data isn’t terrible:

Expect a mid-week relief rally.

If earnings disappoint + Fed sounds cautious:

Expect tech weakness and rotation into safer sectors.

Bottom Line

This week isn’t about one single headline. It’s about the mix of:

Fed minutes
Delayed economic data
Nvidia + major earnings
Global risk sentiment

Stay focused. Stay disciplined. Trade what’s happening, not what you want to happen.